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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still